2012: End of the Recession or End of the World?

Yes, yes... I know! It's been talked about, written about and exhausted to death. We've gone though apocalypse after apocalypse and still no sign of Judgement Day. Nevertheless, I wrote this article in 2009 and it was published in a local magazine. I've edited it a bit to include it here. I guess it's still relevant until after the dates have passed, so I thought why not?! I hope it adds some information to those of you still reading up about it and those who have decided to find out what this is all about. Also, I would like to read new opinions and observations from those of you out there.

The future is always a topic surrounded by speculation. Some economists, such as Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, say that there are still many tough times ahead and predict that the global recession will only end in 2012. Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, has also been noted to support this view. Another, more radical prediction, involves the world ending that same year.

The prediction that the recession will only end in 2012 was first voiced as a rumour in early 2008 and later confirmed by Bill Gates in a conference held in February 2010.  This opinion gained more belief and favour when world renowned economist and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz was interviewed by Daily Finance.  “There is likely to be weakness again in the economy in 2011, 2012 is an optimistic view of when we could be over the travails”, Stiglitz says.

2012 has also been a year of speculation not only among economists, but also religious fanatics, doomsdayers and the general public as some predict that the world will end that same year.  Will the recession only end as a part of everything else that will meet its demise in 2012?

In 1999 radical doomsdayers stocked up on canned foods and gathered in basements expecting the world to come to an end with the dawning of the twenty-first century. This was accompanied by the Y2K speculation and the world expected a global computer systems crash – the end of the IT world, perhaps? The year 2000 came and passed. The Y2K “problem” with older computers was fixed, no computers crashed and our world is still here. Most recently, May 21^st 2011 was marked as Judgement Day. The hype was presented on billboards and spread throughout the internet. The day went by and here we are. Then they went on to say: “Oops, we meant that it was the beginning of the end and not the end itself.” Yes, of course that’s what you meant! Theorists then went on to say that there was an error in their calculations and left it at that. Now we’re left with another prominent forecast of the near-future – the one based on the Mayan calendar.

The Mayas were an ancient civilisation that inhabited a region in Central America, where modern day Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and western Honduras are situated. Their society thrived between the third and tenth centuries AD but collapsed by 1200 AD due to reasons that remain unknown. They are well-known for their advanced knowledge in astrology and mathematics, ahead of the Greeks and Romans of their time. Moreover, the accuracy of the Mayan calendar which measures a solar year as 365.2420 days surpasses that of any of their European contemporaries. Even the Gregorian calendar which we use today is less accurate than the Mayan one and was also formulated much later.

A Mayan date utilises three calendars, the most significant to this theory is the Long Count calendar which is a continuous record of days that starts about every 5 000 years, marking the beginning of a new age. The Mayans recorded four ages, the first beginning with the creation of the Earth on a date calculated as the 13^th of August 314 and the fourth ending on a date believed to be the 21^st of December 2012. The different ages mark evolutionary change and various eras. The Mayans stopped counting days after what is believed to be 2012. However, discrepancies occur such as that with the most popular correlation used between the Gregorian and Mayan calendars known as the Goodman-Martinez-Thompson (GMT). The GMT correlation places the Mayan Long Count calendar as ending on the 14^th of November 1539. Another less popular correlation places the Long Count as ending in 2012. This creates a huge difference for the purposes of accuracy. Since the first date has passed people are inclined to believe that the calculations were incorrect and that 2012 now seems more viable.

The faith in the Mayan calendar is based on its proven accuracy in the past and a correlation to the prophesies of Nostradamus.  Michel de Nostredame, or Nostradamus in Latin, was a sixteenth century French apothecary and seer who published a collection of prophesies which have since become famous worldwide. The prophesies of Nostradamus have proven chillingly accurate regarding events such as the rise and fall of Napoleon, Hitler and World War Two, the assassination of John F. Kennedy and the fall of the Twin Towers in New York in 2001.  The Nostradamus 2012 prediction has been interpreted to mean that an astrological alignment of the earth will occur and will precipitate a cataclysmic event. 

Millions of people around the world hold their own ideas about 2012. Many look forward to nothing more than the Summer Olympic Games to be held in London, whilst environmentalists dread the end of the Kyoto Protocol. In contrast, others debate about comets, magnetic pole shifts, an explosion from the black hole at the centre of our universe, alien invasions, nuclear wars and global warming. There is no scientific evidence supporting any of the contemplations. New Agers believe that the ending of the cycle will bring about a higher spiritual awareness and correspond with a global “consciousness shift”.

It could be anything, if anything at all. Many people do believe that something will happen for better or worse. Maybe it will only be the long-awaited end to the economic downturn. There are also conspiracies that world leaders who follow these predictions and theories are deliberately acting in accordance with them to ensure that the expected events do occur. As with any future hypothesis, we will not know until the prophetic time has come and it is approaching fast. All we can do is Carpe Diem (seize the day). So, even if the world does end tomorrow we will not find ourselves crying over yesterday.

© Maja Dezulovic 2009 & 2011